The Truth About Drafting a QB in the Top 10

How many times have you heard some pundit proclaim that you don't need to draft a QB early? They usually throw out a couple of convenient examples like Tom Brady going in the 6th round, or Kurt Warner not being drafted. Those taking the other side of the argument may point out the Manning brothers. Both of them were number 1 overall selections and have giant diamond studded jewelry on their ring finger. I prefer however, to break things down into actual statistical percentages. So, to get that result I have separated every QB selected in the top 10 over the past twenty years into 3 categories. Note that the players in each category are listed in order of the year they were selected.

The Jack Bauer Division: Like Jack these franchise QB's can be counted on to come through in the clutch.

--Matt Ryan 3rd pick in 2008: Could argue it's too early for him in this division, but would you want him on your team? I thought so.

--Eli Manning 1st pick 2004: Inconsistent at times, but has the ring and last name.

--Phillip Rivers 4th pick 2004: Maybe a stretch for this division, but a franchise QB

--Carson Palmer 4th pick 2003: No playoff success, but he can't play defense too.

--Donovan McNabb 2nd pick in 1999: 1 Super Bowl and 4 NFC Championship games.

--Peyton Manning 1st pick in 1998: May end up as the best ever

--Steve McNair 3rd pick in 1995: 1 Super Bowl and unquestioned team leader

--Troy Aikman 1st pick in 1989: 3 Super Bowls and HOF

The Buick Division: Similar to a Buick these QB's meet basic needs, but you can't help but wonder what it would be like to have a Cadillac.

--JaMarcus Russell 1st pick in 2007: Could still end up in any of the three categories.

--Vince Young 3rd pick in 2006: Great start, but riding the pine now.

--Byron Leftwich 7th pick in 2003: A gutsy player, but a backup.

--Michael Vick 1st pick in 2001: He always puts people in seats but lately it has been courtroom seats instead of NFL seats.

--Kerry Collins 5th pick in 1991: Up and down career but nothing spectacular.

--Trent Dilfer 6th pick in 1994: Has a ring, but would anyone call him a franchise QB?

--Drew Bledsoe 1st pick in 1997: Some would argue for the top category, but no ring for top pick.

The Waterworld Division: Like a certain Kevin Costner movie these guys came with high expectations and a huge cost, but failed miserably.

--Matt Leinart 10th pick in 2006: Too early to give up on, but I don't see it happening.

--Alex Smith 1st pick in 2005: When will teams learn not to draft QB's that ran a gimmick offense at a mid-major?

--David Carr 1st pick in 2002: Not a good career when you once stated that you will cut your hair when your team wins 2 in a row.

--Joey Harrington 3rd pick in 2002: Just hearing his name makes me laugh.

--Tim Couch 1st pick in 1999: Played just 5 disappointing years.

--Akili Smith 3rd pick in 1999: 5 career passing TD's

--Ryan Leaf 2nd pick in 1998: This division could have been named after him.

--Heath Shuler 3rd pick in 1994: Has had more success in politics than pro football.

--Rick Mirer 2nd pick in 1993: Not exactly the next Joe Montana.

--David Klingler 6thpick in 1992: See Alex Smith

--Jeff George 1st pick in 1990: One career playoff win.

--Andre Ware 7th pick in 1990: Not a bad football announcer, but as for his pro career, see Klingler.

Breaking down the date we can see that of the 27 QB's taken in the top 10 in the past 20 years, only 30% are franchise type players. That leaves 70% as disappointments, including 44% who just fell flat on their face.

So, if yo are a fan of the Lions, Jaguars, 49ers, or any team that might give up picks to move into the top ten in this years draft for a QB..........you'd better hope your GM has actually done his research on past NFL drafts.

Until next time, don't forget "it's all in the numbers"